Ospreys vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 89.3%draw 2.5%8.2% US MontaubanOspreys 84.4%draw 2.5%13.1% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 41 Ospreys, with the middle run at 14 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours US Montauban.
Ospreys 1470, US Montauban 824 — 645 points, favouring Ospreys
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys1–0–0US Montauban1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Ospreys by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | US Montauban 22–33 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stade Sapiac |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.