Ospreys vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 71.2%draw 2.5%26.3% ZebreZebre 45.7%draw 2.5%51.8% OspreysOspreys 61.7%draw 2.5%35.8% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Zebre and 29 Ospreys, with the middle run at 7 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Zebre.
Ospreys 1470, Zebre 1309 — 161 points, favouring Ospreys
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys12–1–3Zebre16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ospreys by 12.6 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · Ospreys by 2.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Zebre 23–19 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-10-11 | Ospreys 24–0 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2023-10-28 | Ospreys 34–31 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-01-29 | Zebre 24–28 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-03-06 | Ospreys 27–22 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.