Ospreys vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 85.7%draw 2.5%11.8% ZebreZebre 34.2%draw 2.5%63.3% OspreysOspreys 75.8%draw 2.5%21.7% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 35 Ospreys, half of them between 3 Ospreys and 23 Ospreys, with the middle run at 12 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-13 on a tight afternoon and 35-23 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Ospreys 1567, Zebre 1071 — 497 points, favouring Ospreys
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys13–0–4Zebre17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ospreys by 14.1 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Ospreys by 8.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Zebre 23–19 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-10-11 | Ospreys 24–0 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-11-30 | Zebre 22–17 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-10-28 | Ospreys 34–31 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-01-29 | Zebre 24–28 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.