Portugal vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Portugal 65.3%draw 3.0%31.7% USAUSA 44.1%draw 3.0%52.9% PortugalPortugal 59.3%draw 3.0%37.7% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 USA and 31 Portugal, with the middle run at 5 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Portugal, negative favours USA.
Portugal 1121, USA 1088 — 33 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal1–1–1USA3 meetings, 2022 to 2024 · Portugal by 7.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Portugal 17–21 USA | — | Estádio Municipal Cidade de Coimbra |
| 2023-08-12 | Portugal 46–20 USA | — | Estadio Do Algarve |
| 2022-11-18 | USA 16–16 Portugal | — | The Sevens |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.