Portugal vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 75.4%draw 2.8%21.8% USAUSA 55.2%draw 2.8%42.0% PortugalPortugal 58.8%draw 2.8%38.4% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 USA and 33 Portugal, half of them between 1 Portugal and 20 Portugal, with the middle run at 8 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps USA.
Portugal 1638, USA 1537 — 101 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal1–1–4USA6 meetings, 1998 to 2026 · USA by 6.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | USA 30–29 Portugal | — | DICK'S Sporting Goods Park |
| 2024-11-09 | Portugal 17–21 USA | — | Estádio Municipal Cidade de Coimbra |
| 2023-08-12 | Portugal 46–20 USA | — | Estadio Do Algarve |
| 2022-11-18 | USA 16–16 Portugal | — | The Sevens |
| 2010-11-13 | Portugal 17–22 USA | — | Estadio Universitario |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.