Portugal vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 30.0%draw 2.2%67.8% WalesWales 87.2%draw 2.2%10.6% PortugalPortugal 19.3%draw 2.2%78.5% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 35 Wales and 12 Portugal, half of them between 21 Wales and 1 Portugal, with the middle run at 7 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Portugal are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Portugal 1638, Wales 1868 — 230 points, favouring Wales
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal0–0–2Wales2 meetings, 1994 to 2023 · Wales by 55.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-16 | Wales 28–8 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Riviera |
| 1994-05-17 | Portugal 11–102 Wales | — | The University Field |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.