Portugal vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Portugal 20.3%draw 1.7%78.0% WalesWales 86.6%draw 1.7%11.7% PortugalPortugal 15.1%draw 1.7%83.2% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Wales and 9 Portugal, with the middle run at 10 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Portugal are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Portugal, negative favours Wales.
Portugal 1121, Wales 1425 — 304 points, favouring Wales
Portugal are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal0–0–1Wales1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Wales by 20.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-16 | Wales 28–8 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Riviera |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.