Portugal vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Portugal 87.0%draw 1.5%11.5% ZimbabweZimbabwe 34.0%draw 1.5%64.5% PortugalPortugal 76.1%draw 1.5%22.4% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Portugal v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Portugal wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Zimbabwe and 41 Portugal, half of them between 3 Portugal and 27 Portugal, with the middle run at 13 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Portugal are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Portugal winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Portugal, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Portugal 1638, Zimbabwe 1293 — 345 points, favouring Portugal
Portugal are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Portugal2–0–2Zimbabwe4 meetings, 1985 to 2015 · Zimbabwe by 10.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-11-21 | Portugal 36–11 Zimbabwe | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground(neutral) |
| 1987-04-11 | Zimbabwe 50–9 Portugal | — | Police Ground |
| 1987-04-04 | Zimbabwe 35–9 Portugal | — | — |
| 1985-10-02 | Portugal 18–17 Zimbabwe | — | Estadio Universitario |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.