Racing 92 vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 61.4%draw 2.5%36.1% UlsterUlster 61.8%draw 2.5%35.7% Racing 92Racing 92 47.9%draw 2.5%49.6% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Ulster and 30 Racing 92, with the middle run at 5 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Racing 92, negative favours Ulster.
Racing 92 1707, Ulster 1633 — 74 points, favouring Racing 92
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 921–0–3Ulster4 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Ulster by 10.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | Ulster 61–7 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-12-16 | Ulster 31–15 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2019-01-12 | Ulster 26–22 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2018-10-20 | Racing 92 44–12 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.