Racing 92 vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% UlsterUlster 64.6%draw 2.5%32.9% Racing 92Racing 92 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Ulster and 24 Racing 92, half of them between 3 Ulster and 14 Racing 92, with the middle run at 5 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Racing 92 1632, Ulster 1582 — 50 points, favouring Racing 92
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 921–0–3Ulster4 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Ulster by 10.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | Ulster 61–7 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-12-16 | Ulster 31–15 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2019-01-12 | Ulster 26–22 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2018-10-20 | Racing 92 44–12 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.