Romania vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 40.1%draw 2.1%57.8% SamoaSamoa 79.6%draw 2.1%18.3% RomaniaRomania 28.9%draw 2.1%69.0% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Romania v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Samoa and 16 Romania, half of them between 11 Samoa and 6 Romania, with the middle run at 2 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Romania 1265, Samoa 1512 — 247 points, favouring Samoa
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania3–0–1Samoa4 meetings, 1989 to 2026 · Samoa by 2.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Samoa 37–38 Romania | — | Estadio Charrúa(neutral) |
| 2022-11-19 | Romania 0–22 Samoa | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2017-11-18 | Romania 17–13 Samoa | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 1989-10-14 | Romania 32–24 Samoa | — | Stadionul Steaua II |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.