Romania vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 34.4%draw 1.9%63.7% USAUSA 87.0%draw 1.9%11.1% RomaniaRomania 22.5%draw 1.9%75.6% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Romania v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 USA and 16 Romania, half of them between 11 USA and 4 Romania, with the middle run at 3 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-31 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps USA.
Romania 1265, USA 1537 — 273 points, favouring USA
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania3–0–8USA11 meetings, 1924 to 2025 · USA by 11.4 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · USA by 8.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Romania 18–26 USA | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2024-07-06 | Romania 22–20 USA | — | SeatGeek Stadium(neutral) |
| 2023-08-05 | Romania 17–31 USA | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2018-11-17 | Romania 5–31 USA | — | Stadionul Ghencea II, Bucharest |
| 2016-11-12 | Romania 23–10 USA | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.