Romania vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Romania 26.3%draw 1.8%71.9% USAUSA 75.3%draw 1.8%22.9% RomaniaRomania 24.5%draw 1.8%73.7% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 31 USA and 15 Romania, with the middle run at 6 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Romania, negative favours USA.
Romania 788, USA 1088 — 300 points, favouring USA
Romania are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania3–0–3USA6 meetings, 1999 to 2025 · USA by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Romania 18–26 USA | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2024-07-06 | Romania 22–20 USA | — | SeatGeek Stadium(neutral) |
| 2023-08-05 | Romania 17–31 USA | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2018-11-17 | Romania 5–31 USA | — | Stadionul Ghencea II, Bucharest |
| 2016-11-12 | Romania 23–10 USA | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.