Romania vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 8.1%90.9% WalesWales 96.2%2.8% RomaniaRomania 5.3%93.7% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Romania v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 44 Wales and 1 Wales, half of them between 29 Wales and 5 Wales, with the middle run at 14 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-16 on a tight afternoon and 42-28 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Romania 1265, Wales 1868 — 603 points, favouring Wales
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania2–1–6Wales9 meetings, 1979 to 2004 · Wales by 27.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-11-12 | Wales 66–7 Romania | — | Millennium Stadium |
| 2003-08-27 | Wales 54–8 Romania | — | Racecourse Ground |
| 2002-11-01 | Wales 40–3 Romania | — | Racecourse Ground |
| 2001-09-19 | Wales 81–9 Romania | — | Millennium Stadium |
| 1997-08-30 | Wales 70–21 Romania | — | Racecourse Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.