Romania vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 64.9%draw 3.0%32.1% ZimbabweZimbabwe 54.4%draw 3.0%42.6% RomaniaRomania 53.6%draw 3.0%43.4% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Romania v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Zimbabwe and 39 Romania, half of them between 2 Zimbabwe and 24 Romania, with the middle run at 7 Romania.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Romania are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Romania 1265, Zimbabwe 1293 — 28 points, favouring Zimbabwe
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania4–0–0Zimbabwe4 meetings, 1982 to 1989 · Romania by 9.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1989-09-24 | Romania 52–17 Zimbabwe | — | — |
| 1987-05-23 | Romania 21–20 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Eden Park(neutral) |
| 1982-07-03 | Zimbabwe 24–25 Romania | — | — |
| 1982-06-26 | Zimbabwe 23–25 Romania | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.