Romania vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Romania 17.5%81.5% ZimbabweZimbabwe 90.3%8.7% RomaniaRomania 13.1%85.9% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 50 Zimbabwe and 4 Romania, with the middle run at 16 Zimbabwe.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-14 on a tight afternoon and 42-26 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Romania, negative favours Zimbabwe.
Romania 788, Zimbabwe 1529 — 741 points, favouring Zimbabwe
Romania are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania1–0–0Zimbabwe1 meeting, 1987 to 1987 · Romania by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987-05-23 | Romania 21–20 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Eden Park(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.