Russia vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Russia 18.3%draw 1.3%80.4% SamoaSamoa 92.7%draw 1.3%6.0% RussiaRussia 10.7%draw 1.3%88.0% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Russia v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Russia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Samoa and 10 Russia, half of them between 23 Samoa and 1 Samoa, with the middle run at 10 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Russia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Russia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Russia, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Russia 1137, Samoa 1512 — 375 points, favouring Samoa
Russia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Russia0–0–1Samoa1 meeting, 2019 to 2019 · Samoa by 25.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-24 | Russia 9–34 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Kumagaya Rugby Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.