Russia vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Russia 18.1%80.9% SamoaSamoa 91.6%7.4% RussiaRussia 12.7%86.3% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Russia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 43 Samoa and 7 Russia, with the middle run at 13 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Russia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Russia, negative favours Samoa.
Russia 425, Samoa 1150 — 725 points, favouring Samoa
Russia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Russia0–0–1Samoa1 meeting, 2019 to 2019 · Samoa by 25.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-24 | Russia 9–34 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Kumagaya Rugby Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.