Russia vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Russia 16.6%draw 1.1%82.3% USAUSA 93.6%draw 1.1%5.3% RussiaRussia 10.3%draw 1.1%88.6% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Russia v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Russia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 34 USA and 9 Russia, half of them between 20 USA and 2 USA, with the middle run at 9 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Russia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Russia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Russia, a bar to the left helps USA.
Russia 1137, USA 1537 — 401 points, favouring USA
Russia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Russia0–0–8USA8 meetings, 2004 to 2018 · USA by 21.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-06-10 | USA 62–13 Russia | — | Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
| 2016-06-26 | USA 25–0 Russia | — | Bonney Field |
| 2013-11-23 | Russia 7–28 USA | — | Allianz Park(neutral) |
| 2012-11-09 | Russia 26–40 USA | — | Parc Eirias(neutral) |
| 2011-09-15 | USA 13–6 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Stadium Taranaki(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.