Russia vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Russia 16.5%82.5% USAUSA 91.1%7.9% RussiaRussia 12.1%86.9% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Russia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 38 USA and 9 Russia, with the middle run at 11 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 39-28 on an open one.
Why Russia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Russia, negative favours USA.
Russia 425, USA 1088 — 662 points, favouring USA
Russia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Russia0–0–3USA3 meetings, 2011 to 2018 · USA by 27.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-06-10 | USA 62–13 Russia | — | Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
| 2016-06-26 | USA 25–0 Russia | — | Bonney Field |
| 2011-09-15 | USA 13–6 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Stadium Taranaki(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.