Russia vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Russia 53.1%draw 2.6%44.3% ZimbabweZimbabwe 64.5%draw 2.6%32.9% RussiaRussia 42.3%draw 2.6%55.1% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Russia v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Russia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Zimbabwe and 34 Russia, half of them between 5 Zimbabwe and 18 Russia, with the middle run at 1 Russia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Russia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Russia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Russia, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Russia 1137, Zimbabwe 1293 — 156 points, favouring Zimbabwe
Russia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Russia3–0–0Zimbabwe3 meetings, 2014 to 2016 · Russia by 19.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-11 | Russia 19–15 Zimbabwe | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground(neutral) |
| 2015-11-17 | Zimbabwe 5–50 Russia | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground(neutral) |
| 2014-08-02 | Russia 23–15 Zimbabwe | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.