Sale Sharks vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sale Sharks 61.8%draw 2.5%35.7% UlsterUlster 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% Sale SharksSale Sharks 46.6%draw 2.5%50.9% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Ulster and 28 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 5 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sale Sharks, negative favours Ulster.
Sale Sharks 1558, Ulster 1633 — 75 points, favouring Ulster
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks1–0–1Ulster2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Sale Sharks by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Ulster 22–11 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-12-11 | Sale Sharks 39–0 Ulster | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.