Sale Sharks vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sale Sharks 63.7%draw 2.5%33.8% UlsterUlster 64.6%draw 2.5%32.9% Sale SharksSale Sharks 49.5%draw 2.5%48.0% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sale Sharks v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Ulster and 27 Sale Sharks, half of them between 3 Ulster and 15 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 5 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sale Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sale Sharks, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Sale Sharks 1504, Ulster 1582 — 78 points, favouring Ulster
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks1–0–1Ulster2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Sale Sharks by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Ulster 22–11 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-12-11 | Sale Sharks 39–0 Ulster | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.