Samoa vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Samoa 7.6%91.4% ScotlandScotland 95.2%3.8% SamoaSamoa 5.5%93.5% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Samoa v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 46 Scotland and 1 Scotland, half of them between 32 Scotland and 5 Scotland, with the middle run at 15 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 84 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-15 on a tight afternoon and 43-28 on an open one.
Why Samoa are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Samoa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Samoa, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Samoa 1512, Scotland 2193 — 681 points, favouring Scotland
Samoa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa2–1–11Scotland14 meetings, 1991 to 2025 · Scotland by 10.8 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Scotland by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-18 | Samoa 12–41 Scotland | — | Eden Park |
| 2019-09-30 | Scotland 34–0 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2017-11-11 | Scotland 44–38 Samoa | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2015-10-10 | Scotland 36–33 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | St James' Park(neutral) |
| 2013-06-08 | Scotland 17–27 Samoa | — | King's Park(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.