Samoa vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Samoa 8.6%90.4% ScotlandScotland 95.4%3.6% SamoaSamoa 6.1%92.9% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 43 Scotland and 1 Scotland, with the middle run at 15 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-13 on a tight afternoon and 39-24 on an open one.
Why Samoa are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Samoa, negative favours Scotland.
Samoa 1150, Scotland 1730 — 580 points, favouring Scotland
Samoa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa0–0–6Scotland6 meetings, 1991 to 2025 · Scotland by 18.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-18 | Samoa 12–41 Scotland | — | Eden Park |
| 2019-09-30 | Scotland 34–0 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2017-11-11 | Scotland 44–38 Samoa | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2015-10-10 | Scotland 36–33 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | St James' Park(neutral) |
| 1999-10-20 | Scotland 35–20 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.