Samoa vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Samoa 4.4%94.6% South AfricaSouth Africa 95.6%3.4% SamoaSamoa 3.9%95.1% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 52 South Africa and 2 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why Samoa are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Samoa, negative favours South Africa.
Samoa 1150, South Africa 2036 — 886 points, favouring South Africa
Samoa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa0–0–5South Africa5 meetings, 1995 to 2015 · South Africa by 35.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-26 | South Africa 46–6 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Villa Park(neutral) |
| 2011-09-30 | South Africa 13–5 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | North Harbour Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-09-09 | South Africa 59–7 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Parc des Princes(neutral) |
| 2003-11-01 | South Africa 60–10 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Suncorp Stadium(neutral) |
| 1995-06-10 | South Africa 42–14 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.