Samoa vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Samoa 4.2%94.8% South AfricaSouth Africa 97.6%1.4% SamoaSamoa 2.8%96.2% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Samoa v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 57 South Africa and 2 South Africa, half of them between 40 South Africa and 8 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 92 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 50-29 on an open one.
Why Samoa are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Samoa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Samoa, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Samoa 1512, South Africa 2512 — 1000 points, favouring South Africa
Samoa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa0–0–9South Africa9 meetings, 1995 to 2015 · South Africa by 36.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-26 | South Africa 46–6 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Villa Park(neutral) |
| 2013-06-22 | South Africa 56–23 Samoa | — | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2011-09-30 | South Africa 13–5 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | North Harbour Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-09-09 | South Africa 59–7 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Parc des Princes(neutral) |
| 2007-06-09 | South Africa 35–8 Samoa | — | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.