Samoa vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Samoa 57.4%draw 2.9%39.7% SpainSpain 60.2%draw 3.0%36.8% SamoaSamoa 47.0%draw 3.0%50.0% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Samoa v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Spain and 36 Samoa, half of them between 4 Spain and 20 Samoa, with the middle run at 3 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Samoa are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Samoa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Samoa, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Samoa 1512, Spain 1566 — 54 points, favouring Spain
Samoa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa2–0–0Spain2 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Samoa by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-13 | Samoa 34–30 Spain | — | Apia Park |
| 2018-11-24 | Spain 10–28 Samoa | — | Estadio Nacional Complutense |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.