Samoa vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Samoa 68.7%draw 2.9%28.4% TongaTonga 48.0%draw 2.9%49.1% SamoaSamoa 58.9%draw 3.0%38.1% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Samoa v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Tonga and 31 Samoa, half of them between 1 Tonga and 18 Samoa, with the middle run at 6 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Samoa are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Samoa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Samoa, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Samoa 1512, Tonga 1454 — 58 points, favouring Samoa
Samoa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa37–3–21Tonga61 meetings, 1926 to 2025 · Samoa by 5.4 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Samoa by 11.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Tonga 30–16 Samoa | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
| 2024-08-30 | Samoa 43–17 Tonga | — | Apia Park |
| 2023-08-05 | Samoa 34–9 Tonga | — | Apia Park |
| 2022-07-09 | Samoa 34–18 Tonga | — | Churchill Park(neutral) |
| 2021-07-17 | Tonga 15–37 Samoa | — | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 61. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.