Samoa vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Samoa 79.3%draw 2.3%18.4% TongaTonga 27.3%draw 2.3%70.4% SamoaSamoa 76.5%draw 2.3%21.2% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Tonga and 37 Samoa, with the middle run at 11 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Samoa are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Samoa, negative favours Tonga.
Samoa 1150, Tonga 938 — 213 points, favouring Samoa
Samoa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa3–0–1Tonga4 meetings, 2007 to 2023 · Samoa by 18.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-05 | Samoa 34–9 Tonga | — | Apia Park |
| 2021-07-17 | Tonga 15–37 Samoa | — | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2021-07-10 | Samoa 42–13 Tonga | — | Go Media Stadium |
| 2007-09-16 | Samoa 15–19 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Mosson(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.