Samoa vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Samoa 56.9%draw 3.0%40.1% UruguayUruguay 65.6%draw 3.0%31.4% SamoaSamoa 42.6%draw 3.0%54.4% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Uruguay and 20 Samoa, with the middle run at 2 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Samoa are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Samoa, negative favours Uruguay.
Samoa 1150, Uruguay 1177 — 26 points, favouring Uruguay
Samoa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa1–0–0Uruguay1 meeting, 2003 to 2003 · Samoa by 47.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-10-15 | Samoa 60–13 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Patersons Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.