Samoa vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Samoa 65.2%draw 3.0%31.8% UruguayUruguay 56.5%draw 3.0%40.5% SamoaSamoa 52.8%draw 3.0%44.2% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Samoa v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Uruguay and 40 Samoa, half of them between 1 Uruguay and 25 Samoa, with the middle run at 8 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-25 on an open one.
Why Samoa are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Samoa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Samoa, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Samoa 1512, Uruguay 1520 — 8 points, favouring Uruguay
Samoa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa1–0–0Uruguay1 meeting, 2003 to 2003 · Samoa by 47.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-10-15 | Samoa 60–13 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Patersons Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.