Saracens vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Saracens 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% UlsterUlster 45.1%draw 2.5%52.4% SaracensSaracens 67.2%draw 2.5%30.3% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Saracens v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Ulster and 32 Saracens, half of them between 2 Saracens and 20 Saracens, with the middle run at 9 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Saracens winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Saracens, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Saracens 1861, Ulster 1582 — 279 points, favouring Saracens
Saracens are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Saracens2–0–0Ulster2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Saracens by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01-16 | Saracens 33–17 Ulster | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2015-11-20 | Ulster 9–27 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.