Saracens vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Saracens 71.1%draw 2.5%26.4% UlsterUlster 45.4%draw 2.5%52.1% SaracensSaracens 61.8%draw 2.5%35.7% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Ulster and 33 Saracens, with the middle run at 8 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-25 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Saracens, negative favours Ulster.
Saracens 1802, Ulster 1633 — 169 points, favouring Saracens
Saracens are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Saracens2–0–0Ulster2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Saracens by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01-16 | Saracens 33–17 Ulster | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2015-11-20 | Ulster 9–27 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.