Scarlets vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Scarlets 42.2%draw 2.5%55.3% UlsterUlster 77.8%draw 2.5%19.7% ScarletsScarlets 31.3%draw 2.5%66.2% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scarlets v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Ulster and 16 Scarlets, half of them between 9 Ulster and 7 Scarlets, with the middle run at 1 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scarlets winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scarlets, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Scarlets 1273, Ulster 1582 — 309 points, favouring Ulster
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets6–0–12Ulster18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 2.7 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Ulster by 6.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Scarlets 27–22 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-03-01 | Ulster 30–28 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-05-11 | Scarlets 20–31 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-09-24 | Scarlets 39–55 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-01-28 | Ulster 27–15 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.