Scarlets vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Scarlets 38.8%draw 2.5%58.7% UlsterUlster 74.4%draw 2.5%23.1% ScarletsScarlets 30.9%draw 2.5%66.6% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Ulster and 15 Scarlets, with the middle run at 2 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scarlets, negative favours Ulster.
Scarlets 1334, Ulster 1633 — 299 points, favouring Ulster
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets6–0–12Ulster18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 2.7 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Ulster by 6.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Scarlets 27–22 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-03-01 | Ulster 30–28 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-05-11 | Scarlets 20–31 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-09-24 | Scarlets 39–55 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-01-28 | Ulster 27–15 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.