Scotland vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Scotland 97.2%1.8% USAUSA 5.0%94.0% ScotlandScotland 95.8%3.2% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scotland v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Scotland and 52 Scotland, half of them between 9 Scotland and 37 Scotland, with the middle run at 21 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scotland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scotland, a bar to the left helps USA.
Scotland 2193, USA 1537 — 655 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland8–0–1USA9 meetings, 1991 to 2025 · Scotland by 33.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Scotland 85–0 USA | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2024-07-13 | USA 7–42 Scotland | — | Washington DC |
| 2018-06-17 | USA 30–29 Scotland | — | BBVA Compass Stadium |
| 2015-09-27 | Scotland 39–16 USA | Rugby World Cup | Elland Road(neutral) |
| 2014-06-07 | USA 6–24 Scotland | — | BBVA Compass Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.