Scotland vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Scotland 85.7%draw 1.6%12.7% WalesWales 28.0%draw 1.6%70.4% ScotlandScotland 78.3%draw 1.6%20.1% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scotland v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Wales and 40 Scotland, half of them between 3 Scotland and 26 Scotland, with the middle run at 12 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scotland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scotland, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Scotland 2193, Wales 1868 — 325 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland54–3–75Wales132 meetings, 1883 to 2026 · Wales by 2.7 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Wales by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Wales 23–26 Scotland | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-03-08 | Scotland 35–29 Wales | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2024-02-03 | Wales 26–27 Scotland | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2023-02-11 | Scotland 35–7 Wales | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-02-12 | Wales 20–17 Scotland | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 132. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.