Scotland vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Scotland 97.7%1.3% ZimbabweZimbabwe 3.6%95.4% ScotlandScotland 96.6%2.4% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scotland v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Scotland and 54 Scotland, half of them between 9 Scotland and 39 Scotland, with the middle run at 21 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 38 and 87 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-27 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scotland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scotland, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Scotland 2193, Zimbabwe 1293 — 900 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland5–0–0Zimbabwe5 meetings, 1987 to 1997 · Scotland by 34.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997-06-17 | Zimbabwe 10–55 Scotland | — | — |
| 1991-10-09 | Scotland 51–12 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 1988-05-28 | Zimbabwe 7–34 Scotland | — | — |
| 1988-05-21 | Zimbabwe 10–31 Scotland | — | — |
| 1987-05-30 | Scotland 60–21 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Athletic Park, Wellington(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.