Scotland vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Scotland 75.8%draw 2.4%21.8% ZimbabweZimbabwe 31.3%draw 2.4%66.3% ScotlandScotland 71.2%draw 2.4%26.4% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Zimbabwe and 44 Scotland, with the middle run at 13 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scotland, negative favours Zimbabwe.
Scotland 1730, Zimbabwe 1529 — 201 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland2–0–0Zimbabwe2 meetings, 1987 to 1991 · Scotland by 39.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991-10-09 | Scotland 51–12 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 1987-05-30 | Scotland 60–21 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Athletic Park, Wellington(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.