Sharks vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sharks 51.5%draw 2.5%46.0% UlsterUlster 56.6%draw 2.5%40.9% SharksSharks 46.1%draw 2.5%51.4% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Ulster and 27 Sharks, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Sharks are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sharks, negative favours Ulster.
Sharks 1613, Ulster 1633 — 21 points, favouring Ulster
Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sharks2–0–3Ulster5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Ulster by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Sharks 26–34 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-04-26 | Ulster 19–22 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-03-23 | Sharks 22–12 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-02-25 | Sharks 24–31 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2022-05-20 | Ulster 24–21 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.