Sharks vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sharks 71.2%draw 2.5%26.3% UlsterUlster 50.9%draw 2.5%46.6% SharksSharks 58.0%draw 2.5%39.5% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sharks v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Ulster and 29 Sharks, half of them between 1 Ulster and 18 Sharks, with the middle run at 7 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 27 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-14 on a tight afternoon and 32-25 on an open one.
Why Sharks are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sharks, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Sharks 1746, Ulster 1582 — 164 points, favouring Sharks
Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sharks2–0–3Ulster5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Ulster by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Sharks 26–34 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-04-26 | Ulster 19–22 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-03-23 | Sharks 22–12 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-02-25 | Sharks 24–31 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2022-05-20 | Ulster 24–21 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.