South Africa vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
South Africa 97.7%1.3% USAUSA 3.7%95.3% South AfricaSouth Africa 96.6%2.4% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for South Africa v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are South Africa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 South Africa and 56 South Africa, half of them between 9 South Africa and 39 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 90 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 49-28 on an open one.
Why South Africa are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of South Africa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps South Africa, a bar to the left helps USA.
South Africa 2512, USA 1537 — 974 points, favouring South Africa
South Africa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
South Africa4–0–0USA4 meetings, 1981 to 2015 · South Africa by 41.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-07 | South Africa 64–0 USA | Rugby World Cup | London Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-09-30 | South Africa 64–15 USA | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Mosson(neutral) |
| 2001-12-01 | USA 20–43 South Africa | — | Robertson Stadium |
| 1981-09-25 | USA 7–38 South Africa | — | Owl Creek Polo Field |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.