South Africa vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
South Africa 96.2%2.8% USAUSA 3.8%95.2% South AfricaSouth Africa 95.7%3.3% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are South Africa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 South Africa and 52 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why South Africa are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours South Africa, negative favours USA.
South Africa 2036, USA 1088 — 948 points, favouring South Africa
South Africa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
South Africa2–0–0USA2 meetings, 2007 to 2015 · South Africa by 56.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-07 | South Africa 64–0 USA | Rugby World Cup | London Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-09-30 | South Africa 64–15 USA | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Mosson(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.