South Africa vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
South Africa 94.8%4.2% WalesWales 10.5%88.5% South AfricaSouth Africa 91.8%7.2% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for South Africa v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are South Africa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 South Africa and 53 South Africa, half of them between 8 South Africa and 38 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why South Africa are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of South Africa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps South Africa, a bar to the left helps Wales.
South Africa 2512, Wales 1868 — 644 points, favouring South Africa
South Africa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
South Africa37–1–7Wales45 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · South Africa by 13.1 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · South Africa by 23.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | South Africa 43–0 Wales | Nations Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-11-29 | Wales 0–73 South Africa | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-11-23 | Wales 12–45 South Africa | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-06-22 | Wales 13–41 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium(neutral) |
| 2023-08-19 | Wales 16–52 South Africa | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 45. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.