South Africa vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
South Africa 89.2%9.8% WalesWales 10.0%89.0% South AfricaSouth Africa 89.1%9.9% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are South Africa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Wales and 51 South Africa, with the middle run at 20 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-11 on a tight afternoon and 42-22 on an open one.
Why South Africa are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours South Africa, negative favours Wales.
South Africa 2036, Wales 1425 — 611 points, favouring South Africa
South Africa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
South Africa37–1–7Wales45 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · South Africa by 13.1 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · South Africa by 23.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | South Africa 43–0 Wales | Nations Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-11-29 | Wales 0–73 South Africa | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-11-23 | Wales 12–45 South Africa | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-06-22 | Wales 13–41 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium(neutral) |
| 2023-08-19 | Wales 16–52 South Africa | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 45. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.