Spain vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Spain 57.1%draw 3.0%39.9% USAUSA 65.2%draw 3.0%31.8% SpainSpain 43.5%draw 3.0%53.5% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Spain v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Spain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 USA and 25 Spain, half of them between 5 USA and 13 Spain, with the middle run at 2 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Spain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Spain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Spain, a bar to the left helps USA.
Spain 1566, USA 1537 — 28 points, favouring Spain
Spain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Spain1–0–6USA7 meetings, 1998 to 2026 · USA by 24.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | USA 29–22 Spain | — | Wake Med Soccer Park |
| 2025-07-12 | USA 20–31 Spain | — | American Legion Memorial Stadium |
| 2024-11-23 | Spain 23–26 USA | — | Estadio Nacional Complutense |
| 2023-11-18 | Spain 12–42 USA | — | Estadio El Pantano |
| 2003-04-27 | USA 58–13 Spain | — | Lockhart Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.