Spain vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Spain 23.5%draw 1.7%74.8% WalesWales 91.7%draw 1.7%6.6% SpainSpain 13.9%draw 1.7%84.4% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Spain v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Spain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 38 Wales and 11 Spain, half of them between 23 Wales and level, with the middle run at 8 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Spain are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Spain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Spain, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Spain 1566, Wales 1868 — 303 points, favouring Wales
Spain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Spain0–0–2Wales2 meetings, 1983 to 1994 · Wales by 51.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994-05-21 | Spain 0–54 Wales | — | Ciudad Universitaria |
| 1983-05-29 | Spain 16–65 Wales | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.