Spain vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Spain 87.6%draw 1.9%10.5% ZimbabweZimbabwe 26.9%draw 1.9%71.2% SpainSpain 80.9%draw 1.9%17.2% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Spain v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Spain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zimbabwe and 41 Spain, half of them between 3 Spain and 26 Spain, with the middle run at 13 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Spain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Spain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Spain, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Spain 1566, Zimbabwe 1293 — 273 points, favouring Spain
Spain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Spain5–0–2Zimbabwe7 meetings, 1983 to 2012 · Spain by 6.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-11-14 | Spain 47–14 Zimbabwe | — | Hage Geingob Rugby Stadium(neutral) |
| 1989-07-15 | Zimbabwe 9–14 Spain | — | — |
| 1989-07-08 | Zimbabwe 16–28 Spain | — | — |
| 1985-10-06 | Spain 13–12 Zimbabwe | — | Ciudad Universitaria |
| 1984-07-14 | Zimbabwe 18–30 Spain | — | Police Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.