Stade Francais Paris vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Francais Paris 64.3%draw 2.5%33.2% UlsterUlster 45.5%draw 2.5%52.0% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 58.1%draw 2.5%39.4% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Ulster and 31 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at 6 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stade Francais Paris, negative favours Ulster.
Stade Francais Paris 1775, Ulster 1633 — 142 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris0–0–1Ulster1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Ulster by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Ulster 26–19 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.