Stade Francais Paris vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Francais Paris 69.5%draw 2.5%28.0% UlsterUlster 57.5%draw 2.5%40.0% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Francais Paris v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Ulster and 25 Stade Francais Paris, half of them between 2 Ulster and 14 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at 5 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Francais Paris winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Francais Paris, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Stade Francais Paris 1731, Ulster 1582 — 149 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris0–0–1Ulster1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Ulster by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Ulster 26–19 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.