Stade Toulousain vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Toulousain 75.0%draw 2.5%22.5% UlsterUlster 47.2%draw 2.5%50.3% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Ulster and 34 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 9 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stade Toulousain, negative favours Ulster.
Stade Toulousain 1863, Ulster 1633 — 230 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Toulousain5–0–3Ulster8 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · Stade Toulousain by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | Stade Toulousain 61–21 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-01-13 | Ulster 24–48 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-04-16 | Ulster 23–30 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-04-09 | Stade Toulousain 20–26 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2020-12-11 | Ulster 22–29 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.