Stade Toulousain vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Toulousain 83.2%draw 2.5%14.3% UlsterUlster 39.0%draw 2.5%58.5% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 72.1%draw 2.5%25.4% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Toulousain v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Ulster and 35 Stade Toulousain, half of them between 3 Stade Toulousain and 22 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 10 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Toulousain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Toulousain, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Stade Toulousain 1992, Ulster 1582 — 410 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Toulousain5–0–3Ulster8 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · Stade Toulousain by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | Stade Toulousain 61–21 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-01-13 | Ulster 24–48 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-04-16 | Ulster 23–30 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-04-09 | Stade Toulousain 20–26 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2020-12-11 | Ulster 22–29 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.