Stormers vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stormers host Ulster on Saturday 31 October at DHL Stadium, Cape Town, so Stormers are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Stormers 81.6%draw 2.5%15.9% UlsterUlster 42.7%draw 2.5%54.8% StormersStormers 69.0%draw 2.5%28.5% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stormers v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stormers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Ulster and 31 Stormers, half of them between 2 Stormers and 20 Stormers, with the middle run at 9 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-14 on a tight afternoon and 33-24 on an open one.
Why Stormers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stormers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stormers, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Stormers 1845, Ulster 1582 — 263 points, favouring Stormers
Stormers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stormers3–1–2Ulster6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Ulster by 3.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Ulster 38–38 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-03-28 | Ulster 38–34 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-03-30 | Stormers 13–7 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-01-27 | Ulster 35–5 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-06-11 | Stormers 17–15 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.