Stormers vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stormers 62.2%draw 2.5%35.3% UlsterUlster 50.2%draw 2.5%47.3% StormersStormers 54.9%draw 2.5%42.6% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stormers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Ulster and 30 Stormers, with the middle run at 5 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Stormers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stormers, negative favours Ulster.
Stormers 1716, Ulster 1633 — 82 points, favouring Stormers
Stormers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stormers3–1–2Ulster6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Ulster by 3.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Ulster 38–38 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-03-28 | Ulster 38–34 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-03-30 | Stormers 13–7 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-01-27 | Ulster 35–5 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-06-11 | Stormers 17–15 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.