Tonga vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Tonga 59.8%draw 2.9%37.3% USAUSA 65.0%draw 2.9%32.1% TongaTonga 45.9%draw 2.9%51.2% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Tonga v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Tonga wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 USA and 32 Tonga, half of them between 4 USA and 17 Tonga, with the middle run at 5 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Tonga are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Tonga winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Tonga, a bar to the left helps USA.
Tonga 1454, USA 1537 — 84 points, favouring USA
Tonga are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Tonga9–0–2USA11 meetings, 1999 to 2024 · Tonga by 9.1 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Tonga by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | USA 36–17 Tonga | — | Chambéry Savoie Stadium |
| 2019-10-13 | USA 19–31 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2016-11-19 | Tonga 20–17 USA | — | Reale Arena |
| 2015-07-29 | USA 19–33 Tonga | — | BMO Field(neutral) |
| 2014-11-15 | Tonga 40–12 USA | — | Kingsholm(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.