Tonga vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Tonga 33.2%draw 2.6%64.2% USAUSA 66.3%draw 2.6%31.1% TongaTonga 30.7%draw 2.6%66.7% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Tonga wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 USA and 16 Tonga, with the middle run at 4 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Tonga are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Tonga, negative favours USA.
Tonga 938, USA 1088 — 150 points, favouring USA
Tonga are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Tonga3–0–1USA4 meetings, 2007 to 2024 · Tonga by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | USA 36–17 Tonga | — | Chambéry Savoie Stadium |
| 2019-10-13 | USA 19–31 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2016-11-19 | Tonga 20–17 USA | — | Reale Arena |
| 2007-09-12 | USA 15–25 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Mosson(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.