Tonga vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Tonga 10.5%88.5% WalesWales 94.2%4.8% TongaTonga 7.5%91.5% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Tonga wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 46 Wales and 1 Tonga, with the middle run at 16 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-13 on a tight afternoon and 41-25 on an open one.
Why Tonga are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Tonga, negative favours Wales.
Tonga 938, Wales 1425 — 487 points, favouring Wales
Tonga are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Tonga0–0–4Wales4 meetings, 1987 to 2018 · Wales by 22.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-17 | Wales 74–24 Tonga | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2017-06-16 | Tonga 6–24 Wales | — | Eden Park |
| 2003-10-19 | Wales 27–20 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | GIO Stadium(neutral) |
| 1987-05-29 | Wales 29–16 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Central Energy Trust Arena(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.