Tonga vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Tonga 14.6%draw 1.1%84.3% WalesWales 94.9%draw 1.1%4.0% TongaTonga 7.4%draw 1.1%91.5% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Tonga v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Tonga wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 40 Wales and 8 Tonga, half of them between 26 Wales and 3 Wales, with the middle run at 11 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 39-28 on an open one.
Why Tonga are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Tonga winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Tonga, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Tonga 1454, Wales 1868 — 414 points, favouring Wales
Tonga are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Tonga0–0–10Wales10 meetings, 1974 to 2018 · Wales by 21.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-17 | Wales 74–24 Tonga | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2017-06-16 | Tonga 6–24 Wales | — | Eden Park |
| 2013-11-22 | Wales 17–7 Tonga | — | Millennium Stadium |
| 2003-10-19 | Wales 27–20 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | GIO Stadium(neutral) |
| 2001-11-17 | Wales 51–7 Tonga | — | Millennium Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.