Tonga vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Tonga 80.8%draw 2.6%16.6% ZimbabweZimbabwe 37.0%draw 2.6%60.4% TongaTonga 71.3%draw 2.6%26.1% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Tonga v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Tonga wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Zimbabwe and 43 Tonga, half of them between 2 Tonga and 30 Tonga, with the middle run at 13 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Tonga are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Tonga winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Tonga, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Tonga 1454, Zimbabwe 1293 — 161 points, favouring Tonga
Tonga are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Tonga2–0–0Zimbabwe2 meetings, 1997 to 2026 · Tonga by 19.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Tonga 36–26 Zimbabwe | — | DICK'S Sporting Goods Park(neutral) |
| 1997-05-17 | Zimbabwe 13–42 Tonga | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.