Toulon vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Toulon 72.8%draw 2.5%24.7% UlsterUlster 57.4%draw 2.5%40.1% ToulonToulon 56.8%draw 2.5%40.7% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Toulon v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Toulon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Ulster and 27 Toulon, half of them between 1 Ulster and 16 Toulon, with the middle run at 6 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Toulon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Toulon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Toulon, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Toulon 1663, Ulster 1582 — 81 points, favouring Toulon
Toulon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Toulon1–0–0Ulster1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Toulon by 38.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-17 | Toulon 60–22 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.