Toulon vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Toulon 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% UlsterUlster 69.3%draw 2.5%28.2% ToulonToulon 38.7%draw 2.5%58.8% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Toulon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Ulster and 24 Toulon, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Toulon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Toulon, negative favours Ulster.
Toulon 1435, Ulster 1633 — 199 points, favouring Ulster
Toulon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Toulon1–0–0Ulster1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Toulon by 38.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-17 | Toulon 60–22 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.