Ulster vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ulster 77.8%draw 2.5%19.7% ZebreZebre 32.3%draw 2.5%65.2% UlsterUlster 71.9%draw 2.5%25.6% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ulster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Zebre and 33 Ulster, with the middle run at 9 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Ulster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ulster, negative favours Zebre.
Ulster 1633, Zebre 1309 — 325 points, favouring Ulster
Ulster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ulster12–0–1Zebre13 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Ulster by 27.4 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Ulster by 27.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Zebre 12–28 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-01-26 | Ulster 14–15 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | Zebre 36–40 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-11-25 | Ulster 36–15 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2021-10-02 | Zebre 3–36 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.