Ulster vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ulster 87.5%draw 2.5%10.0% ZebreZebre 32.8%draw 2.5%64.7% UlsterUlster 76.8%draw 2.5%20.7% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ulster v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ulster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 36 Ulster, half of them between 4 Ulster and 24 Ulster, with the middle run at 12 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-13 on a tight afternoon and 35-23 on an open one.
Why Ulster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ulster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ulster, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Ulster 1582, Zebre 1071 — 511 points, favouring Ulster
Ulster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ulster13–0–2Zebre15 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Ulster by 24.7 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Ulster by 24.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Zebre 21–40 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2026-03-28 | Zebre 12–28 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-01-26 | Ulster 14–15 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | Zebre 36–40 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-11-25 | Ulster 36–15 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.