Uruguay vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Uruguay 60.1%draw 3.0%36.9% USAUSA 69.4%draw 3.0%27.6% UruguayUruguay 42.8%draw 3.0%54.2% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Uruguay v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Uruguay wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 USA and 29 Uruguay, half of them between 5 USA and 15 Uruguay, with the middle run at 3 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 30-27 on an open one.
Why Uruguay are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Uruguay winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Uruguay, a bar to the left helps USA.
Uruguay 1520, USA 1537 — 18 points, favouring USA
Uruguay are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
USA15–1–4Uruguay20 meetings, 1989 to 2021 · USA by 12.6 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · USA by 6.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-09 | Uruguay 34–15 USA | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2021-10-03 | USA 19–16 Uruguay | — | Infinity Park |
| 2019-03-02 | USA 25–32 Uruguay | — | Starfire Sports |
| 2018-03-03 | Uruguay 19–61 USA | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2017-02-04 | USA 29–23 Uruguay | — | Toyota Field |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.