Uruguay vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Uruguay 67.9%draw 2.9%29.2% USAUSA 38.9%draw 2.9%58.2% UruguayUruguay 64.9%draw 2.9%32.2% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Uruguay wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 USA and 41 Uruguay, with the middle run at 9 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Uruguay are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Uruguay, negative favours USA.
Uruguay 1177, USA 1088 — 89 points, favouring Uruguay
Uruguay are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
USA1–0–1Uruguay2 meetings, 2021 to 2021 · Uruguay by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-09 | Uruguay 34–15 USA | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2021-10-03 | USA 19–16 Uruguay | — | Infinity Park |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.