Uruguay vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Uruguay 37.0%draw 2.1%60.9% WalesWales 85.2%draw 2.1%12.7% UruguayUruguay 24.5%draw 2.1%73.4% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Uruguay wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 34 Wales and 13 Uruguay, with the middle run at 4 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Uruguay are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Uruguay, negative favours Wales.
Uruguay 1177, Wales 1425 — 248 points, favouring Wales
Uruguay are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Uruguay0–0–2Wales2 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Wales by 33.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-13 | Wales 35–13 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Egao Health (Umakana Yokana) Stadium |
| 2015-09-20 | Wales 54–9 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.