Uruguay vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Uruguay 19.6%draw 1.4%79.0% WalesWales 93.5%draw 1.5%5.0% UruguayUruguay 10.9%draw 1.4%87.7% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Uruguay v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Uruguay wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 40 Wales and 10 Uruguay, half of them between 25 Wales and 1 Wales, with the middle run at 11 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Uruguay are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Uruguay winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Uruguay, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Uruguay 1520, Wales 1868 — 349 points, favouring Wales
Uruguay are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Uruguay0–0–2Wales2 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Wales by 33.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-13 | Wales 35–13 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Egao Health (Umakana Yokana) Stadium |
| 2015-09-20 | Wales 54–9 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.