Rugby World Cup 2015

The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more

Team	QF	SF	Final	3rd	Champion
New Zealand	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	<0.1%	100.0%
Australia	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Argentina	100.0%	100.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
South Africa	100.0%	100.0%	<0.1%	100.0%	<0.1%
France	100.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Ireland	100.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Scotland	100.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Wales	100.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Canada	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
England	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Fiji	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Georgia	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Italy	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Japan	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Namibia	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Romania	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Samoa	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Tonga	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Uruguay	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
USA	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%

Each tie lists the teams that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome. Select a tie for the full list, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.