Finished · all 48 fixtures played. Nothing here is a forecast.
How far each team actually got. Every fixture is played, so these are results rather than a share of simulations. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more
 South Africa | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | – | ✓ |
 New Zealand | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | – | – |
 Argentina | ✓ | ✓ | – | – | – |
 England | ✓ | ✓ | – | ✓ | – |
 Fiji | ✓ | – | – | – | – |
 France | ✓ | – | – | – | – |
 Ireland | ✓ | – | – | – | – |
 Wales | ✓ | – | – | – | – |
 Australia | – | – | – | – | – |
 Chile | – | – | – | – | – |
 Georgia | – | – | – | – | – |
 Italy | – | – | – | – | – |
 Japan | – | – | – | – | – |
 Namibia | – | – | – | – | – |
 Portugal | – | – | – | – | – |
 Romania | – | – | – | – | – |
 Samoa | – | – | – | – | – |
 Scotland | – | – | – | – | – |
 Tonga | – | – | – | – | – |
 Uruguay | – | – | – | – | – |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Quarter-finals
- Wales✓ · –
- Argentina✓ · ✓
- Ireland✓ · –
- New Zealand✓ · ✓
- France✓ · –
- South Africa✓ · ✓
- England✓ · ✓
- Fiji✓ · –
Semi-finals
- Argentina✓ · –
- New Zealand✓ · ✓
- England✓ · –
- South Africa✓ · ✓
Bronze final
- Argentina✓ · –
- England✓ · ✓
Final
- New Zealand✓ · –
- South Africa✓ · ✓
All 40 pool fixtures — the results, on the Matches tab.