5,000 Monte Carlo simulations
The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more
 New Zealand | 99.6% | 95.2% | 61.2% | 50.2% | 9.3% | 38.7% |
 South Africa | 99.9% | 95.1% | 51.3% | 40.5% | 8.6% | 28.9% |
 Ireland | 99.6% | 77.3% | 62.0% | 31.1% | 17.7% | 10.9% |
 England | 99.8% | 89.6% | 48.1% | 23.5% | 12.9% | 6.9% |
 France | 99.9% | 63.9% | 51.6% | 15.0% | 23.6% | 6.9% |
 Australia | 97.6% | 88.1% | 40.4% | 17.5% | 9.0% | 3.5% |
 Scotland | 99.4% | 56.1% | 40.2% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% |
 Argentina | 99.6% | 80.7% | 23.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
 Wales | 97.6% | 63.5% | 11.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
 Fiji | 93.4% | 34.9% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
 Italy | 83.6% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 Georgia | 77.2% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Japan | 77.3% | 9.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Chile | 52.1% | 6.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Spain | 55.1% | 5.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Samoa | 49.2% | 4.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Portugal | 33.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Tonga | 43.3% | 2.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 USA | 41.2% | 2.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Hong Kong China | 18.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Uruguay | 27.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Canada | 19.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Zimbabwe | 20.7% | 1.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Romania | 15.2% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Round of 16
- Wales76% · 51%
- Fiji65% · 21%
- Argentina17% · 10%
- England16% · 15%
- Spain14% · 2%
3 more
- Tonga5% · <1%
- Canada5% · <1%
- Zimbabwe2% · <1%
- New Zealand81% · 77%
- Spain39% · 2%
- Australia18% · 17%
- Canada15% · <1%
- Fiji12% · <1%
8 more
- Tonga9% · <1%
- Japan6% · <1%
- Samoa5% · <1%
- USA5% · <1%
- Zimbabwe4% · <1%
- Argentina2% · <1%
- Wales2% · <1%
- Chile1% · <1%
- France93% · 60%
- Scotland59% · 21%
- Ireland35% · 18%
- Japan4% · <1%
- Portugal3% · <1%
3 more
- Uruguay3% · <1%
- Samoa1% · <1%
- USA1% · <1%
- South Africa95% · 91%
- Portugal30% · 1%
- Uruguay23% · <1%
- Tonga12% · <1%
- Samoa8% · <1%
8 more
- USA7% · <1%
- Japan6% · <1%
- Zimbabwe6% · <1%
- Scotland4% · <1%
- Ireland3% · 1%
- Italy3% · 2%
- Georgia2% · 2%
- Wales1% · <1%
- Argentina81% · 70%
- Chile43% · 3%
- Fiji17% · 14%
- Hong Kong China15% · 1%
- Tonga9% · <1%
8 more
- Australia8% · 5%
- Samoa6% · <1%
- USA5% · <1%
- Japan5% · <1%
- Zimbabwe5% · <1%
- New Zealand2% · 2%
- Spain2% · <1%
- Wales1% · <1%
- Ireland62% · 59%
- Scotland37% · 34%
- Georgia36% · 2%
- Italy29% · 3%
- Romania10% · <1%
8 more
- Tonga7% · <1%
- Samoa5% · <1%
- Japan4% · <1%
- Zimbabwe4% · <1%
- USA4% · <1%
- Wales<1% · <1%
- Uruguay<1% · <1%
- South Africa<1% · <1%
- Australia72% · 66%
- Japan51% · 7%
- Samoa24% · 2%
- USA19% · 1%
- New Zealand17% · 16%
3 more
- Chile8% · 3%
- France6% · 4%
- Hong Kong China3% · <1%
- England83% · 74%
- Italy52% · 6%
- Georgia39% · 4%
- Wales17% · 11%
- Romania5% · <1%
1 more
- South Africa5% · 4%
Quarter-finals
- South Africa91% · 48%
- New Zealand77% · 46%
- Australia17% · 4%
- Spain2% · <1%
- Italy2% · <1%
9 more
- Georgia2% · <1%
- Portugal1% · <1%
- Ireland1% · <1%
- Uruguay<1% · <1%
- Fiji<1% · <1%
- Japan<1% · <1%
- Tonga<1% · <1%
- Scotland<1% · <1%
- Samoa<1% · <1%
- France60% · 49%
- Wales51% · 8%
- Scotland21% · 16%
- Fiji21% · 2%
- Ireland18% · 15%
4 more
- England15% · 7%
- Argentina10% · 3%
- Spain2% · <1%
- Tonga<1% · <1%
- Argentina70% · 21%
- Ireland59% · 47%
- Scotland34% · 24%
- Fiji14% · 2%
- Australia5% · 2%
10 more
- Chile3% · <1%
- Italy3% · <1%
- Georgia2% · <1%
- New Zealand2% · 2%
- Japan1% · <1%
- Hong Kong China1% · <1%
- Samoa1% · <1%
- Spain<1% · <1%
- Tonga<1% · <1%
- South Africa<1% · <1%
- England74% · 41%
- Australia66% · 34%
- New Zealand16% · 13%
- Wales11% · 3%
- Japan7% · <1%
8 more
- Italy6% · 1%
- Georgia4% · <1%
- South Africa4% · 3%
- France4% · 3%
- Chile3% · <1%
- Samoa2% · <1%
- USA1% · <1%
- Hong Kong China<1% · <1%
Semi-finals
- France49% · 13%
- South Africa48% · 38%
- New Zealand46% · 38%
- Scotland16% · 3%
- Ireland15% · 5%
5 more
- Wales9% · <1%
- England7% · 1%
- Australia4% · 1%
- Argentina3% · <1%
- Fiji2% · <1%
- Ireland47% · 27%
- England41% · 22%
- Australia36% · 16%
- Scotland24% · 11%
- Argentina21% · 6%
8 more
- New Zealand15% · 12%
- South Africa4% · 3%
- Wales3% · <1%
- France3% · 2%
- Italy2% · <1%
- Fiji2% · <1%
- Georgia1% · <1%
- Japan1% · <1%
Bronze final
- France37% · 24%
- Ireland31% · 18%
- Scotland27% · 11%
- England25% · 13%
- Australia23% · 9%
8 more
- Argentina17% · 5%
- New Zealand11% · 9%
- South Africa11% · 9%
- Wales10% · 2%
- Fiji3% · <1%
- Italy2% · <1%
- Georgia1% · <1%
- Japan1% · <1%
Final
- New Zealand50% · 39%
- South Africa41% · 29%
- Ireland31% · 11%
- England24% · 7%
- Australia18% · 4%
4 more
- France15% · 7%
- Scotland14% · 3%
- Argentina7% · <1%
- Wales1% · <1%
All 36 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.