5,000 Monte Carlo simulations
The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more
 South Africa | 99.9% | 91.8% | 69.8% | 56.5% | 11.2% | 44.8% |
 New Zealand | 99.5% | 92.7% | 44.6% | 36.2% | 6.5% | 23.3% |
 Ireland | 98.7% | 73.0% | 50.4% | 22.3% | 16.3% | 7.5% |
 England | 98.5% | 82.9% | 47.0% | 23.9% | 12.5% | 6.8% |
 France | 99.8% | 60.5% | 46.4% | 13.2% | 20.8% | 6.2% |
 Australia | 96.7% | 77.4% | 33.8% | 15.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% |
 Scotland | 98.5% | 59.8% | 40.2% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 3.8% |
 Argentina | 99.6% | 77.3% | 34.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
 Wales | 86.1% | 40.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
 Zimbabwe | 82.1% | 39.2% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
 Fiji | 92.0% | 30.3% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | <0.1% |
 Japan | 81.7% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 Italy | 87.2% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
 Chile | 47.3% | 10.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Georgia | 75.0% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Spain | 58.6% | 7.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Samoa | 50.9% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Uruguay | 39.6% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Hong Kong China | 17.3% | 3.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 USA | 31.3% | 2.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Portugal | 22.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Romania | 9.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Tonga | 13.3% | 1.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Canada | 15.0% | 1.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Each tie lists the teams that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome. Select a tie for the full list, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Round of 16
- Fiji54% · 17%
- Zimbabwe37% · 22%
- Wales37% · 22%
- England22% · 19%
- Spain22% · 4%
3 more
- Argentina21% · 14%
- Tonga4% · <1%
- Canada4% · <1%
- New Zealand75% · 70%
- Spain35% · 3%
- Australia23% · 19%
- Fiji17% · 1%
- Canada11% · <1%
9 more
- Wales9% · 1%
- Zimbabwe9% · 2%
- Samoa5% · <1%
- Japan5% · <1%
- Argentina3% · <1%
- USA3% · <1%
- England2% · <1%
- Tonga2% · <1%
- Chile1% · <1%
- France92% · 56%
- Scotland48% · 19%
- Ireland40% · 23%
- Uruguay8% · <1%
- Japan5% · <1%
3 more
- Portugal4% · <1%
- Samoa2% · <1%
- USA<1% · <1%
- South Africa93% · 86%
- Uruguay30% · 2%
- Portugal18% · 1%
- Wales10% · 1%
- Zimbabwe9% · 1%
9 more
- Samoa7% · <1%
- Scotland6% · 1%
- Japan6% · <1%
- Ireland6% · 2%
- USA4% · <1%
- Italy3% · 2%
- Georgia3% · 1%
- Tonga3% · <1%
- England2% · <1%
- Argentina76% · 63%
- Chile36% · 5%
- Fiji21% · 12%
- Hong Kong China13% · 2%
- Australia10% · 6%
9 more
- Wales8% · 3%
- Samoa8% · <1%
- Zimbabwe7% · 3%
- USA6% · <1%
- Japan6% · 1%
- Tonga3% · <1%
- Spain3% · 1%
- New Zealand2% · 2%
- England2% · 1%
- Ireland53% · 49%
- Scotland45% · 40%
- Georgia39% · 3%
- Italy25% · 3%
- Romania7% · <1%
9 more
- Wales6% · 2%
- Samoa6% · <1%
- Zimbabwe5% · <1%
- Japan4% · <1%
- USA4% · <1%
- Uruguay2% · 1%
- Tonga2% · <1%
- England1% · <1%
- South Africa<1% · <1%
- Australia64% · 53%
- Japan56% · 12%
- Samoa24% · 3%
- New Zealand22% · 21%
- USA13% · 1%
3 more
- Chile10% · 5%
- France7% · 4%
- Hong Kong China4% · 1%
- England70% · 61%
- Italy58% · 9%
- Georgia33% · 4%
- Wales15% · 11%
- Zimbabwe15% · 10%
3 more
- South Africa6% · 5%
- Romania2% · <1%
- Tonga<1% · <1%
Quarter-finals
- South Africa86% · 65%
- New Zealand70% · 26%
- Australia19% · 5%
- Zimbabwe3% · <1%
- Spain3% · <1%
14 more
- Wales2% · <1%
- Uruguay2% · <1%
- Italy2% · <1%
- Ireland2% · <1%
- Georgia1% · <1%
- Fiji1% · <1%
- Scotland1% · <1%
- Portugal1% · <1%
- England1% · <1%
- Argentina<1% · <1%
- Japan<1% · <1%
- Canada<1% · <1%
- Chile<1% · <1%
- Samoa<1% · <1%
- France56% · 44%
- Ireland23% · 17%
- Zimbabwe22% · 4%
- Wales22% · 5%
- Scotland19% · 14%
7 more
- England19% · 9%
- Fiji17% · 2%
- Argentina14% · 5%
- Spain4% · <1%
- Tonga<1% · <1%
- Uruguay<1% · <1%
- Japan<1% · <1%
- Argentina63% · 29%
- Ireland49% · 33%
- Scotland40% · 26%
- Fiji12% · 2%
- Australia6% · 3%
14 more
- Chile5% · <1%
- Wales5% · 2%
- Zimbabwe4% · 1%
- Italy3% · <1%
- Georgia3% · <1%
- New Zealand2% · 2%
- England2% · 1%
- Hong Kong China2% · <1%
- Japan2% · <1%
- Samoa1% · <1%
- Spain1% · <1%
- Uruguay1% · <1%
- USA<1% · <1%
- South Africa<1% · <1%
- England61% · 37%
- Australia53% · 26%
- New Zealand21% · 17%
- Japan12% · 2%
- Wales11% · 3%
9 more
- Zimbabwe10% · 3%
- Italy9% · 2%
- South Africa5% · 4%
- Chile5% · <1%
- France4% · 3%
- Georgia4% · <1%
- Samoa3% · <1%
- Hong Kong China1% · <1%
- USA1% · <1%
Semi-finals
- South Africa65% · 53%
- France44% · 12%
- New Zealand26% · 21%
- Ireland18% · 5%
- Scotland14% · 3%
7 more
- England9% · 3%
- Argentina6% · 1%
- Wales5% · <1%
- Zimbabwe5% · <1%
- Australia5% · 2%
- Fiji2% · <1%
- Spain<1% · <1%
- England38% · 21%
- Ireland33% · 18%
- Australia29% · 13%
- Argentina29% · 12%
- Scotland26% · 12%
11 more
- New Zealand18% · 15%
- Wales5% · 1%
- South Africa5% · 4%
- Zimbabwe4% · <1%
- Italy3% · <1%
- France3% · 2%
- Japan3% · <1%
- Fiji2% · <1%
- Chile2% · <1%
- Georgia<1% · <1%
- Samoa<1% · <1%
Bronze final
- France33% · 21%
- Ireland28% · 16%
- Scotland26% · 12%
- England23% · 13%
- Argentina21% · 8%
12 more
- Australia19% · 7%
- South Africa13% · 11%
- New Zealand8% · 7%
- Wales8% · 2%
- Zimbabwe7% · 2%
- Fiji4% · <1%
- Italy3% · <1%
- Japan2% · <1%
- Chile1% · <1%
- Georgia<1% · <1%
- Spain<1% · <1%
- Samoa<1% · <1%
Final
- South Africa57% · 45%
- New Zealand36% · 23%
- England24% · 7%
- Ireland22% · 8%
- Australia15% · 4%
5 more
- Scotland15% · 4%
- France13% · 6%
- Argentina13% · 3%
- Wales2% · <1%
- Zimbabwe2% · <1%
All 36 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.