Rugby World Cup 2027

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Hong Kong China wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 40 to New Zealand by 8 · median New Zealand by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 44 and 98 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 21 is 38-17 as readily as 53-32.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Chile wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Australia by 33 to Australia by 6 · median Australia by 17

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 37 and 85 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Australia by 17 is 32-15 as readily as 44-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Romania wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 40 to South Africa by 8 · median South Africa by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 46 and 106 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 21 is 40-19 as readily as 55-34.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Georgia wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Italy by 14 to Georgia by 5 · median Italy by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 68 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Italy by 2 is 19-17 as readily as 30-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Canada wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Argentina by 39 to Argentina by 8 · median Argentina by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 39 and 87 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Argentina by 21 is 35-14 as readily as 48-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Spain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Fiji by 27 to Fiji by 2 · median Fiji by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Fiji by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 38-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Portugal wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ireland by 39 to Ireland by 9 · median Ireland by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 37 and 85 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ireland by 21 is 34-13 as readily as 47-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Uruguay wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Scotland by 38 to Scotland by 8 · median Scotland by 20

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 39 and 87 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Scotland by 20 is 34-14 as readily as 47-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Samoa wins.

Middle half of outcomes: France by 39 to France by 8 · median France by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 39 and 89 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a France by 21 is 35-14 as readily as 48-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are USA wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Japan by 24 to USA by 1 · median Japan by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Japan by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 34-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Zimbabwe wins.

Middle half of outcomes: England by 39 to England by 8 · median England by 20

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 40 and 92 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a England by 20 is 35-15 as readily as 49-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Tonga wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Wales by 32 to Wales by 6 · median Wales by 16

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Wales by 16 is 30-14 as readily as 42-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are New Zealand wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 7 to New Zealand by 41 · median New Zealand by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 43 and 97 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 21 is 37-16 as readily as 52-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Australia wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Australia by 8 to Australia by 39 · median Australia by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 39 and 88 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Australia by 21 is 35-14 as readily as 48-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are South Africa wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 8 to South Africa by 38 · median South Africa by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 39 and 88 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 21 is 35-14 as readily as 48-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Italy wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Italy by 3 to Italy by 25 · median Italy by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 37 and 86 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Italy by 12 is 30-18 as readily as 42-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Argentina wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Argentina by 7 to Argentina by 38 · median Argentina by 20

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Argentina by 20 is 32-12 as readily as 44-24.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Fiji wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Fiji by 5 to Fiji by 32 · median Fiji by 15

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 82 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Fiji by 15 is 30-15 as readily as 42-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ireland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ireland by 7 to Ireland by 36 · median Ireland by 19

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 39 and 91 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ireland by 19 is 35-16 as readily as 48-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scotland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Scotland by 8 to Scotland by 38 · median Scotland by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 37 and 84 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Scotland by 21 is 34-13 as readily as 46-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are France wins.

Middle half of outcomes: France by 8 to France by 39 · median France by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 39 and 90 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a France by 21 is 35-14 as readily as 49-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Japan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Samoa by 3 to Japan by 20 · median Japan by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Japan by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are England wins.

Middle half of outcomes: England by 9 to England by 40 · median England by 22

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 39 and 91 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a England by 22 is 36-14 as readily as 50-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wales wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Wales by 8 to Wales by 39 · median Wales by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 82 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Wales by 21 is 33-12 as readily as 45-24.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Australia wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 23 to New Zealand by 2 · median New Zealand by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 80 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 10 is 27-17 as readily as 38-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Hong Kong China wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Chile by 25 to Hong Kong China by 1 · median Chile by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Chile by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Italy wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 38 to South Africa by 9 · median South Africa by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 38 and 88 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 21 is 35-14 as readily as 48-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Romania wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Georgia by 28 to Georgia by 4 · median Georgia by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 37 and 84 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Georgia by 13 is 30-17 as readily as 42-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Fiji wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Argentina by 24 to Argentina by 1 · median Argentina by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Argentina by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 37-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Canada wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Spain by 18 to Spain by 1 · median Spain by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Spain by 7 is 25-18 as readily as 36-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scotland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ireland by 13 to Scotland by 5 · median Ireland by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ireland by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Portugal wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Uruguay by 6 to Portugal by 10 · median Portugal by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Portugal by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Japan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: France by 33 to France by 6 · median France by 17

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 38 and 86 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a France by 17 is 32-15 as readily as 45-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Samoa wins.

Middle half of outcomes: USA by 7 to Samoa by 10 · median Samoa by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Samoa by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wales wins.

Middle half of outcomes: England by 22 to England by 2 · median England by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a England by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 37-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Zimbabwe wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Tonga by 22 to Zimbabwe by 3 · median Tonga by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Tonga by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.