Assume a result and see what follows from it. The figures come from the same 5,000 simulations behind the published forecast, counting only the ones that went the way you assumed — so a combination that never came up has no answer.
Nothing assumed yet — these are the published forecasts.
Assume a result
Select a winner, or a draw. Select it again to release it. Fixtures already played cannot be changed.
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
What follows
Winning the tournament, and reaching the round of 16, against the same figures with nothing assumed.
| Team | Win | Change | Qualify | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 38.7% | — | 99.6% | — |
| South Africa | 28.9% | — | 99.9% | — |
| Ireland | 10.9% | — | 99.6% | — |
| France | 6.9% | — | 99.9% | — |
| England | 6.9% | — | 99.8% | — |
| Australia | 3.5% | — | 97.6% | — |
| Scotland | 3.1% | — | 99.4% | — |
| Argentina | 0.9% | — | 99.6% | — |
| Wales | 0.2% | — | 97.6% | — |
| Canada | <0.1% | — | 19.7% | — |
| Chile | <0.1% | — | 52.1% | — |
| Fiji | <0.1% | — | 93.4% | — |
| Georgia | <0.1% | — | 77.2% | — |
| Hong Kong China | <0.1% | — | 18.6% | — |
| Italy | <0.1% | — | 83.6% | — |
| Japan | <0.1% | — | 77.3% | — |
| Portugal | <0.1% | — | 33.4% | — |
| Romania | <0.1% | — | 15.2% | — |
| Samoa | <0.1% | — | 49.2% | — |
| Spain | <0.1% | — | 55.1% | — |
| Tonga | <0.1% | — | 43.3% | — |
| Uruguay | <0.1% | — | 27.0% | — |
| USA | <0.1% | — | 41.2% | — |
| Zimbabwe | <0.1% | — | 20.7% | — |