Assume a result and see what follows from it. The figures come from the same 5,000 simulations behind the published forecast, counting only the ones that went the way you assumed — so a combination that never came up has no answer.
Nothing assumed yet — these are the published forecasts.
Assume a result
Select a winner, or a draw. Select it again to release it. Fixtures already played cannot be changed.
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
What follows
Winning the tournament, and reaching the round of 16, against the same figures with nothing assumed.
| Team | Win | Change | Qualify | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 44.8% | — | 99.9% | — |
| New Zealand | 23.3% | — | 99.5% | — |
| Ireland | 7.5% | — | 98.7% | — |
| England | 6.8% | — | 98.5% | — |
| France | 6.2% | — | 99.8% | — |
| Australia | 3.9% | — | 96.7% | — |
| Scotland | 3.8% | — | 98.5% | — |
| Argentina | 3.0% | — | 99.6% | — |
| Wales | 0.3% | — | 86.1% | — |
| Zimbabwe | 0.3% | — | 82.1% | — |
| Fiji | <0.1% | — | 92.0% | — |
| Georgia | <0.1% | — | 75.0% | — |
| Japan | <0.1% | — | 81.7% | — |
| Uruguay | <0.1% | — | 39.6% | — |
| Canada | <0.1% | — | 15.0% | — |
| Chile | <0.1% | — | 47.3% | — |
| Hong Kong China | <0.1% | — | 17.3% | — |
| Italy | <0.1% | — | 87.2% | — |
| Portugal | <0.1% | — | 22.1% | — |
| Romania | <0.1% | — | 9.6% | — |
| Samoa | <0.1% | — | 50.9% | — |
| Spain | <0.1% | — | 58.6% | — |
| Tonga | <0.1% | — | 13.3% | — |
| USA | <0.1% | — | 31.3% | — |