England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 21
20 February 1999Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Richard Cockerill
- 3Darren Garforth
- 4Martin Johnson+2.1
- 5Tim Rodber
- 6Lawrence Dallaglio(c)+8.7
- 7Neil Back
- 8Richard Hill
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Mike Catt+2.3
- 11Dan Luger-5.9
- 12Jerry Guscott
- 13Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 14David Rees
- 15Nick Beal
Replacements
- 16Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 17Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 18Matt Perry
- 19Paul Grayson+7.3
- 20Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 21Neil McCarthy
- 22Martin Corry-6.2
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Paul Burnell
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Peter Walton
- 7Martin Leslie
- 8Eric Peters
- 9Gary Armstrong(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12John Leslie-1.3
- 13Alan Tait
- 14Cammie Murray
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Budge Pountney
- 17Dave Hilton
- 18Iain Fairley
- 19Shaun Longstaff
- 20Andy Reed
- 21Craig Chalmers
- 22Steve Brotherstone
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.