Scotland v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 46
3 October 1999Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 7 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3George Graham
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Budge Pountney
- 8Gordon Simpson
- 9Gary Armstrong(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12John Leslie-1.3
- 13Alan Tait
- 14Cammie Murray
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Jamie Mayer
- 17Peter Walton
- 18Doddie Weir
- 19Dave Hilton
- 20Duncan Hodge
- 21Bryan Redpath
- 22Robbie Russell+3.0
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2Naka Drotske
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 5Mark Andrews
- 6Johan Erasmus
- 7Andre Venter
- 8Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen(c)
- 10Jannie de Beer
- 11Pieter Rossouw
- 12Brendan Venter
- 13Robbie Fleck
- 14Deon Kayser
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Ollie le Roux
- 17Krynauw Otto
- 18Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 19Chris Rossouw
- 20Andre Vos
- 21Werner Swanepoel
- 22Pieter Muller
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.