Ireland v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
3 – 23
10 October 1999Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 14.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Justin Fitzpatrick-4.2
- 2Keith Wood+3.6
- 3Paul Wallace
- 4Paddy Johns
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Trevor Brennan
- 7Andy Ward
- 8Dion O'Cuinneagain(c)
- 9Tom Tierney
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Matt Mostyn
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Justin Bishop
- 15Conor O'Shea
Replacements
- 16Jonathan Bell
- 17Eric Elwood
- 18Eric Miller-2.2
- 19Bob Casey
- 20Peter Clohessy
- 21Ross Nesdale
- 22Brian O'Meara
Australia
- 1Richard Harry
- 2Phil Kearns
- 3Andrew Blades
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5John Eales(c)
- 6Mark Connors
- 7David Wilson
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Tim Horan
- 13Dan Herbert
- 14Ben Tune-0.3
- 15Matt Burke
Replacements
- 16Jason Little
- 17Nathan Grey+10.3
- 18Tiaan Strauss
- 19Owen Finegan
- 20Dan Crowley
- 21Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 22Chris Whitaker
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.