Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 20
5 February 2000Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 5.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 7 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 6 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Massimo Cuttitta
- 2Alessandro Moscardi
- 3Tino Paoletti
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Andrea Gritti
- 6Massimo Giovanelli
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Wim Visser
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 12Luca Martin
- 13Manuel Dallan
- 14Denis Dallan-0.8
- 15Matt Pini
Replacements
- 16Carlo Orlandi
- 17Giampiero de Carli
- 18Matteo Mazzantini
- 19Aaron Persico
- 20Giuseppe Lanzi
- 21Marco Rivaro
- 22Andrea Scanavacca
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Mattie Stewart
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Budge Pountney
- 8Gordon Simpson
- 9Bryan Redpath
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12John Leslie(c)-1.3
- 13Jamie Mayer
- 14Shaun Longstaff
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16James McLaren
- 17Stuart Reid
- 18Doddie Weir
- 19Dave Hilton
- 20Andy Nicol
- 21Duncan Hodge
- 22Robbie Russell+3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.